Population Viability Analysis

Population viability analysis (PVA) uses computer simulation models to project population trajectories under different scenarios. It incorporates demographic rates (birth, death, age structure), environmental variability, genetic factors, and catastrophes to estimate extinction probability over 100 years or more. PVA is used to compare management options (e.g., captive breeding vs. habitat protection vs. harvest reduction), set minimum population targets, and prioritise conservation spending. For fish, PVA is complicated by high fecundity, strong recruitment variability, and uncertainty in survival rate estimates.